Analisis Pembentukan Sebaran Bivariat Berbasis Copula Antara Luas Area Terbakar dan Curah Hujan di Sumatra Bagian Selatan

Sri Nurdiati, Mohamad Khoirun Najib, Muhammad Zidane Bayu

Abstract


Kebakaran hutan dan lahan selalu terjadi setiap tahunnya di Indonesia. Luas area terbakar memiliki hubungan tidak langsung dengan curah hujan. Fungsi copula dapat memodelkan hubungan bivariat curah hujan sebagai iklim global dengan kebakaran hutan, khususnya di Sumatera bagian Selatan. Oleh karena itu studi ini menganalisis dan memodelkan sebaran bivariat berbasis copula antara curah hujan dan luas area terbakar. Data dipilah berdasarkan indikator iklim global El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Estimasi parameter model dilakukan menggunakan metode Inference of Function for Margins (IFM). Beberapa fungsi copula digunakan untuk membentuk distribusi bersama, seperti Gaussian, student’s t, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, Joe, Galambos, BB1, BB6, BB7, dan BB8. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa sebaran bersama antara curah hujan dan luas area terbakar dipengaruhi oleh indeks ENSO dan IOD. Semakin tinggi indeks ENSO dan IOD, semakin tinggi peluang luas area terbakar pada saat curah hujan rendah dan sebaliknya. Pernyataan tersebut diperkuat dengan peluang bersyarat terjadinya luas area terbakar lebih dari 100 ribu hektar ketika curah hujan dalam kondisi rendah, sangat kecil hampir mendekati nol ketika La Nina dan IOD Negatif. Sementara itu, pada kondisi El Nino Moderat Kuat dan IOD Positif, peluang terjadinya luas area terbakar tersebut bernilai tinggi yaitu 62% dan 91%

Keywords


Copula bivariat; Copula dirotasi; Dependensi; Peluang bersyarat

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.42024.217-227

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